A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
